The Kenyan Civil War

The assassination of a second opposition politician in Kenya proves that President Kibaki’s supporters are not satisfied with just stealing the election, they want to overturn the ODM’s control of Parliament. This would constitute the end of Kenya’s “democracy experiment” begun in 2002.

However the return to dictatorship will not stabilize the situation there. If anything, it’s going to lead to full-blown civil war. We are possibly already in the early stages of that war, and unless some breakthrough is made between the Odinga and Kabaki, I see nothing less than the collapse of Kenya into two or more separate states based on ethnicity similar to what happened in Yugoslavia 18 years ago.

Such an event would constitute the greatest disaster to befall East Africa since the Rwandan Genocide.

UPDATE:
Thinking Kenyan makes some interesting points about the calls for peace without justice:

What about the call for peace?. I support the call for peace.We can go to the mountain tops and shout peace peace peace,In fact i personally went to Nakumatt and donated foodstuffs for the displaced.But in reality,have we solved the issues that brought about the unrest in the first place?
So after the Kalenjin has stopped attacking his kikuyu neighbors and become peaceful,should he just forget that he had a problem as well?Will the call for peace remove all doubts in his head that the elections were rigged?Will it have solved any land issues?

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2 Comments

  1. Naftali:

    If America had the means and the know-how, would you advocate that it conquer lands like these and impose its ideals on their society?

    Even if it would require the killing of all opposed?

    I think I would, and presumptuous as that is, it’s not surprising to me that America has not been granted that power.

  2. Scott Kirwin:

    Naftali
    No I wouldn’t – although I believe that some type of “benevolent colonialism” is probably the only long-term answer for Africa.
    America’s default state is isolationism, and I believe that whenever possible we should respect that. I think Europe and the World at-large needs to understand how it has benefited from pax americana. That’s why I would like to see American troops out of Korea, Western Europe and Japan.

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