Occam’s Razor Unnecessary To Cut Short Weiner

To be honest I haven’t followed this story much. I like computers and use them pretty much around the clock during the week, so when the weekend comes I tend to avoid them and “disconnect” from the online world once the whistle blows on Friday.

This story blew up over the weekend, so that when I returned this morning I was able to learn about it without having to wade through speculation and evidence that turned out later to be false that usually accompany news-breaking stories.

I have dedicated this blog to Occam’s Razor which stipulates that having two theories of equal evidence, the simpler one is most likely true. The key component of Occam’s Razor to function is “equal evidence”. The theory works best when applied in Science to judge the rare cases when two theories explain the same evidence. Usually evidence favors one theory over another but there are times when two explanations work – and those are the times when Occam’s Razor shines like the sharp, gleaming tool it is.

Doug Ross has laid out the chronology, and the evidence against Rep. Weiner’s denials is contained in the large body of tweets that Ross chronicles have been sent over the past 10 weeks.

There are 2 competing theories that explain the evidence: The first is that as Congressman Weiner has asserted, his email, yFrog, Facebook and Twitter accounts were hacked, and that he didn’t know the young woman who received the photograph, Gennette Nicole Cordova. Ms. Cordova has also publicly asserted that she doesn’t personally know the Congressman either.

The second theory is that Weiner and Ms. Cordova are lying, and that the photograph was intentionally sent but mistakenly made public instead of private.

The evidence? The PJ Tatler lays it out in detail, but here are the salient points:
A string of tweets dating back to 4/9/2011. There is an earlier tweet from porn star Ginger Lee who is also a fan of the Congressman’s. “You know it’s a good day when you wake up to a DM from @RepWeiner. (I’m a fangirl, y’all, he’s my trifecta of win.)” Cordova’s first tweet that mentions the congressman came on 4/9/2011: “”I wonder what my boyfriend @RepWeiner is up to right now”.

In Ross’s timeline there are several other tweets from supposedly young women/school age girls that refer to Congressman Weiner.

To hack multiple accounts is extremely difficult, and is usually done by sophisticated hackers – often in the employ of the Chinese government or Russian mafia – for economic gain. To mistakenly send a photo publicly instead of privately requires a single key change:

@RepWeiner @GennetteNicole http://yfrog.com/h25m3luj – public
@RepWeiner d GennetteNicole http://yfrog.com/h25m3luj – private – known as a “direct message (DM)” in Twitter.

If the evidence supporting both theories was equal, Occam’s Razor would favor the simpler explanation, that Congressman Weiner fat-fingered the Twitter command. But the evidence is NOT equal; it is overwhelmingly against Weiner’s explanation. In fact the evidence points to a horny 46 year old Congressman with a penchant for very young women.

It’s not uncommon – especially in New York given that another congressman, albeit a Republican, resigned over a lewd pic sent to someone other than his wife. There must be something in the water up there considering that former Attorney General Eliot Spitzer had a thing about a particular young girl that was not his wife too. As a middle aged happily married man, I can loosely relate to these men – before I laugh at them and call them a pack of cradle-robbing weasels.

The Right is (rightfully in my view) upset over the mainstream media’s ignoring of the story, especially the way it responded to Congressman Lee’s affair. Lee was out in 48 hours; Weiner is still kicking – at least for now. My view though is that he’s dead-(congress)man-walking, and fully expect a resignation by the end of the week. I only wonder how far he will go? I don’t believe he’s perjured himself yet, but his next moves are critical – especially if the FBI gets involved as it must to pursue the hacker who tampered with a congressman’s email accounts in the same way that it pursued the hacking of Sarah Palin’s email accounts. It would be a shame if the Congressman continues the denials and drags Ms. Cordova through the mud with him, but it is probably already too late. As the old cliche goes, it’s not the crime but the coverup that nails you – words of wisdom that came out of the original “Gate” part of “Weinergate”.

10 Comments

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  10. william (cat folk artist):

    Whoever has done the hack attack on Weiner does need to be caught and brought to trial to see if a conviction is merrited and punishment procured in accordance to the laws of the nation; in the case of this being ignored by the left leaning and almost falling over press, none are majorly shocked by it anymore. However, any kind of watergate style of coverup, deliberate in the intent to screen and distract this having happened needs to be severely dealt with and swiftly dealt with as well for all who are involved…no exceptions.

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